Texas Is Not Turning Blue Anytime Soon

Categories: Politics

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Inqvisitor
Not likely to change much in the near future, says The New York Times

An analysis of data compiled and released by The New York Times surmises that, despite the hopes and claims of groups like Battleground Texas, Texas is unlikely to become a Democratic stronghold, or even a consistent battleground, anytime soon.

The reason? Unlike other southern states that have seen swings in voting patterns -- like North Carolina or Virginia -- Texas' population growth stems largely from a high in-state birth rate and migration from outside of the United States, rather than regional migration within the United States.

Those factors mean the state has a low non-southern born population (14 percent of Texas residents) and a high foreign-born population (17 percent). Southern-born voters are far more likely to vote Republican. Immigrant residents are far less likely to be able to vote at all. In Virginia, by comparison, 27 percent of the population is non-southern born.

Residents do come to Texas from other states in large numbers -- there are 600,000 California transplants here -- but the state's large population size mitigates any potential political shift.

Nate Cohn concludes in the Times that the only quick way forward for Democrats in the state is winning over the group they struggle with most.

"Without additional gains among white voters, Democrats will be forced to wait a long time for the children of foreign-born residents to carry them to competitiveness in Texas, a state that Mr. Obama lost by 17 points in 2012," he writes.



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88 comments
pak152
pak152

I imagine this was very difficult for the DO to publish

lankyw
lankyw

Get off your But and Vote Texas

rogjohns64
rogjohns64

I dont see the Democrats gaining white voters as long as their main platform objectives are to disenfranchise them in order to redistribute the wealth. Who is it they want to take power from under the guise of equality?


Yeah, I'm sure they are gonna flock to that cause.


Interesting however that that small blue square in north texas would perish in a week without food and water from the surrounding red areas.


If the "hicks in the sticks" ever decided they needed to thin out the electoral herd inside the blue square, a few roadblocks and infrastructure diversions should do the trick.


Jus Sayin'

eporterfield11
eporterfield11

Can someone tell me the name/major town in that poor lonely blue county in Northern Texas?  Given that I live in the DFW metroplex, I want to visit that county and meet some kindred spirits!

skeechi
skeechi

Texas is becoming more and more urban, and all five of the largest cities are blue here. The cities will prevail over the hicks and sticks, just a matter of time.

tlewis186
tlewis186

Yep, racism is main stream here. Our idea of diversity is to elect a rabid Canadian born Cuban. 


Texas has the highest percentage of uninsured folks in the nation. It would be karma if hospitals were allowed to turn away those right wingers and let em fend for themselves. 

DerpDudeTX
DerpDudeTX

I agree with the assessment that waiting for a demographic change is not going to turn TX blue any time soon. Democrats must win over more "southern-born" white voters. I don't think that is impossible nor out of the realm of possibility in the next couple election cycles given the fact the Republicans continue to move further and further to the right. There are a lot of people in the middle...always. You just have to get them to vote. Unforunately, Texas is neither a red state or a blue state. It is a non voting state, with the worst turnout in the country.

Mervis
Mervis

As long as faith and religion are big issues in politics then we are all screwed.

mouldingthefuture
mouldingthefuture

@rogjohns64 You don't see much at all if it isn't coming to you from your television. Democrats are wannabe republicans in that they cater to money. You've gotta go 3rd party to be a decent human, these days.

pak152
pak152

@eporterfield11 that is more like light blue than blue, and if you can't identify Dallas county then you need to move back to where you came from

Threeboys
Threeboys

That's Dallas county, knot head.

pak152
pak152

@skeechi did you see that Harris county is a lighter blue than Dallas County?

l306psab
l306psab

@skeechi Is your precious Karl going to give you magical powers to gulag and/or machinegun all those hicks and sticks?  Oh, wait, they're all HEAVILY ARMED and they shoot those firearms often!  Nope, not going to get that power, not for a good while to come.  In fact, you'll probably be long gone from this earth before that happens.  Sorry to disappoint you, but just go back to your Communist Manifesto and keep dreaming.

eporterfield11
eporterfield11

South Dallas might be blue, but not North Dallas.  You get to the 'burbs' and there is hardly a Democrat to be found.  Or if they are there, they are drowned out by the far right wing nutjobs.

dingo
dingo

@skeechi 

The hicks and sticks in the surrounding suburban, faster growing red counties?

roo_ster
roo_ster

@tlewis186 

It is not right wingers who clog the public hospitals and emergency rooms.  It is the poor blacks and mexicans.  Many of the latter illegal immigrants.

 

jagged78
jagged78

@tlewis186 All you dems know how to do is shout racism...getting a little old when you have no context don't ya think?

jkingsmill
jkingsmill

@DerpDudeTX Democrats winning over Southern born white voters?  Impossible.  VERY.  

eporterfield11
eporterfield11

I agree with you to a point.  Texas is a gerrymandered state as well.  I live in the DFW metroplex, and I agree that there is poor voter turnout, especially for primaries where the "radical loonies" in the extremes of the Republican Party get nominated by the radical loonies who represent the minority extremes of the Republican Party.  Until moderates turn out for primaries, nothing will change.  When good men do nothing, evil prevails, which is why we have Ted Cruz as a Senator, I'm stuck with Pete Sessions as a Congressment, and we still have that moron as Governor.

jkingsmill
jkingsmill

@Mervis - If you think you're screwed, move to looney liberal land.  

l306psab
l306psab

@Mervis Ah, but if all the peasantry would simply devote all their hearts and minds to the socialist state, then the world would hold hands and sing "The Internationale"?  Wait, they tried that in the old Soviet Union...seems to me it didn't turn out so well.

AFriarPunk
AFriarPunk

@Mervis  We are adults and can call it for what it is. WE HAVE BEEN FUCKED OVER by the JEEBUS HYPOCRITES..... Snake handlers and faith healing tongue talking nutjobs have single handedly sucked every ounce of cool out of this state.  And they will fall of their holy pedestals and straight into their own fiery pits of hell where they will forever char.  And a new generation of super cool Texans will bring this State back to the land where the coolest of all cool people roam, margarita's flow freely and the evangelist are giving blow jobs daily at all the local book stores.

rogjohns64
rogjohns64

@mouldingthefuture @rogjohns64


I've gone 3rd party before.

It got me 8 years of Clinton.

You've got to stop looking for a political solution.

The constitution is a blueprint for self-destruction.

The 14th Amendment to it is a blueprint for legally displacing the descendents of its founders.Just like Mexico allowing European Americans to settle in Texas and California proved foolhardy for them.

If the Constitution, as originally drafted, had allowed Native Americans to vote do you think we would have fulfilled our manifest destiny when there was more of them than us?

All the bad things our ancestor did to make us a prosperous superpower are now illegal and enforced. 

Vote for whoever you want, we're all strapped to the same demographic bomb.



clstevens914
clstevens914

@l306psab @skeechi There was nothing in the OP to even hint of violence. Does it not disturb you that the word 'prevail' caused you to automatically think of weapons and violence? 

Or are you saying that Texas Republicans will resort to gun violence to retain their hold on political power as it slips their grasp due to legal demographic changes?




bmwfxr
bmwfxr

@eporterfield11 That isn't Dallas.  Dallas here is Dallas County, not what everyone calls the city of Dallas.  Dallas is not Weatherford all the way up to Frisco but that his what people call Dallas.  Fortunately I live in Fort Worth(Tarrant) County, also referred to as Dallas, which is red. Life is too short to live in Dallas or Austin or any other city ate up with the liberal dumb asses.


jkingsmill
jkingsmill

@dingo @skeechi - There are 254 counties and Texas.  Don't discount the other urban cities like Amarillo, Lubbock, Corpus Christi, Plano, and their surrounding counties. Those are no small counties which can balance out those few large counties. Bexar, Harris, and Dallas Counties are not Texas. Fort Bend, Montgomery, Collin, or larger populated counties with larger Republican counties.  Your logic is flawed.    

l306psab
l306psab

@dingo @skeechi Yep, from what I gather, a lot of the Californians who have moved to Texas, for instance, are the more conservative ones fleeing Jerry Brown's "socialist peoples workers paradise".

mouldingthefuture
mouldingthefuture

@roo_ster @tlewis186 Then perhaps you should recognize that you are supporting the government that has wrecked these illegals' countries, forcing them to flee. 'Harvest of Empire' is a great flick demonstrating the chaos the US government has reaped over the past several decades.

clstevens914
clstevens914

@jkingsmill @DerpDudeTX

They won me over several decades ago.

The change to blue is coming, not today or tomorrow, but it is coming much sooner than you think and it will be a near death blow to the GOP.

bmwfxr
bmwfxr

@eporterfield11 I love it how liberals always claim racisim(gerrymandering) when no one agrees with them.  Have you seen the color graph above you dumb ass.  It is almost entirely red...that isn't from anyone gerrymandering the voting districts.  this isn't a voting district map. 

l306psab
l306psab

@eporterfield11 Just to brighten your day, leftist, the next time you go to the store, think about all those "radical loonies" concealed carrying handguns all around you.  HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!  Sweet dreams, commie!

jkingsmill
jkingsmill

@AFriarPunk @Mervis  Not all conservative Christians are they way you describe.  You stereotype.  And this state will never go blue in my lifetime.   Move to San Francisco. You'll fit in.  Please take Austin with you.  

l306psab
l306psab

@clstevens914 There hasn't been a leftist yet that didn't dream of getting rid of "reactionaries", usually via violent measures.  And the Democrat Party is no longer the party of "the little guy" and hasn't been since being taken over by the radicals from the 1960's.  Its a hard left party that does its dirty work of trying to wreck this nation every day.  So, don't play those little Alinskyist word games with me, I'm not buying your bullmanure.

l306psab
l306psab

@mouldingthefuture You're no more than another in a long line of "blame America" leftists.  In reality, those Central American nations, along with Mexico, are torn up due to leftists and flat out crooks.  Those people are ignorant and don't understand that "el jefe" isn't going to do a darned thing to help them, and neither is the Democrat Party.  All one has to do to see how the Democrat Party "takes care of" people is to look at America's black communities.  The Democrat Party has done such a great job for them...not.  Welfare and handouts and yet those communities are poorer and more violent than ever.  The Democrat Party helped push the "gangsta culture" that has wrecked black families...because busted families make for good welfare slaves, tied eternally to taxpayer-funded handouts.  You should be ashamed of yourselves, but I know that you love power so much that you just don't care.

pak152
pak152

@mouldingthefuture @jagged78 @tlewis186 more likely you watch rachel madcow, andrea mitchell and ed schultz all of whom greatly shade the truth. how often have you actually watched FNC news programs? or are you referring to O'Reilly and Hannity? if the latter they are opinion programs not news programs. but then I suspect you are a member of the low informed dimocratic party

DerpDudeTX
DerpDudeTX

@bmwfxr @eporterfield11 Bmw, you're right. It is a map of counties showing their average total vote reflected by shades of red and blue. Also consider the vast majority of those counties have a low population, of which also has a low turn out.

But eportfield's comment is no less incorrect, as we all know the districts are gerrymandered to the liking of the majority party. Gerrymandering can occur even when it isn't based on race.

mouldingthefuture
mouldingthefuture

@l306psab @mouldingthefuture That's a mighty oblivious point of view you have. The democratic party you are so in love with is as far right as is possible without falling into the realm of fantasy like the gop. Did you get your 'knowledge' from a cartoon elephant or something?

mouldingthefuture
mouldingthefuture

@pak152 @mouldingthefuture @jagged78 @tlewis186 if you are referring to the faux news channel as FNC news, then you have a ways to go before you can scoff at anyone's knowledge, primarily because faux news is an entertainment channel rather than a news source. Besides, anyone who believes what they are told by 'for profit' organizations is a tool of the corporate states of america.

mouldingthefuture
mouldingthefuture

@l306psab @mouldingthefuture @jagged78 @tlewis186 Talking points don't come from television. The only thing you can acquire from tv is a brain overflowing with propaganda directly from the CIA's mockingbird program which was exposed in the seventies as a government noose on the mainstream media. Keep up, don't be a tool.

sole21
sole21

@DerpDudeTX I love how the liberals in this thread are so rational & even-keeled, while the more far-right the opinion is the more emotional & less verbose it reads. Keep on doin' what you're doing.

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