Poll: Texans Still Don't Particularly Like Rick Perry, but He'd Whip Senator Wendy Davis in Gubernatorial Race

Categories: Politics

rickperrywendydavis.jpg
Senator Wendy Davis stood beneath the dome for 11 hours in Mizuno sneakers (and, quite possibly, adult diapers) filibustering abortion legislation that could have shuttered all but a handful of providers. At one point nearly 200,000 tuned into watch, until three rather sketchy points of order brought brought her marathon testimony to a premature close.

In the process, she became progressive's brightest hope against patriarchy in deep-red state legislatures. In the week since her filibuster, her name recognition in this state has doubled. But that doesn't mean she's ready for a head-to-head against Governor Rick Perry in 2014.

According to a poll from Public Policy Polling, about half of those polled disapproved of Perry's job performance. Against a generic, "someone else" challenger, he loses 41 to 47 percent. Meanwhile, Davis is largely liked, 39 to 29 percent. Yet as of this poll, she still can't come close to toppling him, which says more about the prospects of any Democrat running for statewide office than it does about Davis.

Perry said Tuesday that he planned to announce "exciting future plans" in San Antonio on Monday. If by plans Perry means he's seeking another term, he should heed the results of this poll. Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott has spent much of the last several years burnishing his Republican credentials by picking fights with the feds in court. If he ends up challenging Perry in the GOP primary, it won't be any cakewalk for the governor. The poll has Perry leading Abbott by a paltry 3 percent.

Statewide, Texas may not be in danger of going blue in 2014, but the days when Perry waltzes to re-election may be over.

For more on the poll's methodology, check the bottom of the first page here.

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42 comments
RTGolden1
RTGolden1 topcommenter

I'm a bit confused.  Perry's 41% mean he's not particularly liked, but Davis' 29-39% means she's largely liked? Does the Observer hate math now too?

roo_ster
roo_ster

"Poll: Texans Still Don't Particularly Like Rick Perry, but He'd Whip Senator Wendy Davis in Gubernatorial Race"

Wendy is to the abortion issue what white supremacists are to the "tough on crime" issue.  Lotsa folks may be in support of the issue, but they want some sense of decorum.  

In Wendy's case, WENDY REALLY, REALLY LOVES HER SOME LATE-TERM ABORTIONS.  When the baby looks like a baby, not when it is really tiny, maybe looks more a uvula than a child, and where one can wave one's hands about & avoid thinking too much about it while chanting "rape, incest, life of hte mother" over & over until the bad thoughts go away.

In the case of the kluxers, they may come right out and say that "n*****s and b*****s ought to be locked up so that honest folk can go about their business."  Now, the effect of getting "tough on crime" will be such that many black and hispanic young men will end up in prison, as they commit crimes way out of proportion to their numbers.  But, the average citizen can console himself with the notion that the goal is to reduce crime, not imprison black and hispanic men.

Yes, this means that NYC Mayor Bloomberg and white supremacists have roughly the same goal.  The main differences between them are ethnicity, PR, and dentition.


everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps topcommenter

I think you are overthinking it.  It's pretty simple: pro-abortionists are unpopular.

I know all the "pro-choice" yadda yadda yadda.  But the fact of the matter is, she became the figurehead for sixth month abortions.  There's a cost for that, just like when Libertarian candidates become the figureheads for heroin legalization.  80% of the country wants much sharper restrictions on how late abortions can be performed.  Sixth month abortions are disgusting to most people.

She's now the symbol of a practice that most people consider disgusting, and a significant part of the population considers evil and murder.  How was that going to help her prospects?

MikeWestEast
MikeWestEast

Governor Perry is very vulnerable to a Republican challenger that is not condescending.  Senator Hutchison should have easily won that primary, but she could not resolve her obvious distaste that most voters were conservative.  She was coming from Washington to make us better.  The same thing happened with that tough Grandma Comptroller.  She then confirmed her apostasy by going third party.  Republican primary voters do not want to hear the state is on the wrong path. They love it.  They acknowledge the existing driver knows to stay on the road, but he keeps opening his stupid mouth.  The winning message is same path with someone that does not look foolish.  It sounds like Mr. Dewhurst and Mr. Abbott both understand that strategy.

Ms. Davis is not relevant.  She may not make it as a state senator in 2014, never mind governor. 

adam578
adam578

I don't much care for Perry myself, but it is hard to argue with the results. I'm not from Texas but I am damn glad to be here. This state weathered the recession like nowhere else in the country. If you don't believe that then you haven't spent enough time on the coasts getting depressed by how miserable everything and everyone is. I think Perry has mostly been successful despite himself, and mostly by staying out of the way, but that beats most of the governors who are actively making a mess of things.

pak152
pak152

"she became progressive's brightest hope against patriarchy in deep-red state legislatures." in what way? she hasn't told us why she is in favor of abortions taking place after 20 weeks or why abortion clinics shouldn't have to conform to the same rules as other ambulatory surgery clinics.
here is the text of the bill. what is wrong with it?

http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/tlodocs/832/billtext/html/HB00002I.htm

as for Wendy Davis how about these hard hitting questions she was asked this past Sunday
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/20-questions-wendy-davis_738218.html

and even Kirsten Powers ( a true blue Dem) doesn't care for Davis.

" I don’t stand with Wendy. Nor do most women, as it turns out. According to a June National Journal poll, 50 percent of women support, and 43 percent oppose, a ban on abortion after 20 weeks, except in cases of rape and incest."
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/07/02/kirsten-powers-i-don-t-stand-with-wendy-davis.html

Tim.Covington
Tim.Covington

I think part of it is the fact that Texans are getting sick of Perry's selling the state to the highest bidder while pandering to the far right social conservatives. I really do believe that if the Democrats could run someone who has a solid history of being pro-second amendment/anti-gun control (and somewhat fiscally conservative), they could win the election. Every person I know is torn when they go to the polls. They want the government to both stay out of their uterus/bedroom and their gun safe. They also want the state government to do its job, which is not to line the pockets of the politicians' friends. 

To be honest, at a state wide level, the Democratic party has the same problem as the Republican's nationally. They just can't seem to choose the right candidates for the general election. They either choose someone whose history/positions make them unelectable in Texas, or they choose someone who has the charisma of a dish towel.

roo_ster
roo_ster

@RTGolden1  

Progressives generally think math is a conspiracy against them.  I think it comes from too many goofy policies that don't add up. 

icowrich
icowrich

@RTGolden1 Relative to partisan identification in the state, Davis is outperforming Rick Perry.  She still would lose in a 2014 election.  If she runs, her goal won't be a '14 victory (she knows how unlikely that is) so much as to continue raising her profile.

Montemalone
Montemalone topcommenter

@adam578

Perry and his Hateful Band of Closet Cocksuckers all need to shrivel up and die in the West Texas Sun.

He has institutionalized hate in the State Constitution by prohibiting gays and lesbians from getting married.

He thumbed his nose at the Obama administration by rejecting funds to expand Medicare, and thereby reduce the strain on local taxpayer supported hospitals (and local taxpayers. Your property tax bill has a section for Parkland) 

He has vetoed and promises to continue a ban on texting while driving. Not even a full ban on handheld devices and video screens which is what we really need.

And he consistently embarrasses the entire state every time he opens his mouth.

ThePosterFormerlyKnownasPaul
ThePosterFormerlyKnownasPaul topcommenter

@Tim.Covington  

According to the poll results, more people disapprove of Perry's job performance than approve, yet these same respondents will vote for Perry over any challenger.

What does that say about Perry and any potential challengers?

More importantly, what does that say about the polled voters?

wcvemail
wcvemail

@Tim.Covington Accurate observations IMO except that the White-Perry contest indicates deeper Dem problems. Add in the relatively smaller Repub population, which apparently out-participates the larger Dem population, and it's even more of a puzzle.

For instance, Bill White was a pro-business, sorta fiscally conservative guy. He wasn't a rock star but did have enough charisma to be elected Houston mayor. Nonetheless, he lost the statewide race just as predicted. Is it Repub money that pays for ads that sway the non-political among us? Is it downstream, local lack of Dem organization?

icowrich
icowrich

@everlastingphelps Yeah, it turns out that wasn't what they were chanting...although the one girl at the end says it to the camera.

Tim.Covington
Tim.Covington

@everlastingphelps This is a perfect example of people who a friend of mine (she's a Democrat) wishes would stop being on her side. Every political faction has those people who they wish would stop being on their side.

wcvemail
wcvemail

@everlastingphelps Those particular chanters are even more damaging to the cause at hand than the most ignorant, Middle-Ages-minded ranters on the right, not least because the chanters probably thought it was hilarious without considering the big picture. Hate to use the cliche, but I really am shocked.

RTGolden1
RTGolden1 topcommenter

@Montemalone @adam578 I'd agree with your last three points to a certain degree, then point out that your first point paints your second the color of hypocrisy.

everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps topcommenter

@Montemalone @adam578  

Homophobia?  Check.

Classifying a constitutional amendment approved by the majority of voters as "hate"?  Check.

Obama nut riding?  Check.

Obscure nanny-state rant?  Check

Overrused liberal cliche as a closer?  Check.

I think we have the perfect 'libtard" comment!

Tim.Covington
Tim.Covington

@wcvemail The thing is, White had an anti-gun history (past membership in Mayors Against Illegal Guns). That will not fly in Texas. One of the biggest things that caused Ann Richards to lose to George Bush was that she vetoed legislation legalizing concealed carry in Texas. Democrats need to understand that any candidate for statewide office that has any history of being anti-gun will lose a statewide general election.

wcvemail
wcvemail

@monstruss @everlastingphelps 

I hear it clearly, and these ears have been rocked-and-rolled AND Navy-ed. It's pretty obvious. Chanting is much pithier and louder, and angrier, than either joining in the singing (c'mon, it's "Amazing Grace," for Pete's sake!) or asking, "How does Gospel singing help the poor women who will be deprived of even preventive family planning and sex education?"

wcvemail
wcvemail

@Tim.Covington @everlastingphelps EXACTLY like the bigots who assume that because I'm Cauc, mid-aged, male, and fiscally conservative, that I'm all in for racial bigotry and willful ignorance.

everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps topcommenter

@wcvemail @everlastingphelps Yup.  Expect that clip to play in HEAVY rotation on her opponent's ads during her next campaign, wherever it happens to be.

And the next one, and the next one, and the next one.

"Wendy Davis -- The Satanists' Candidate.  A Vote for Davis is a vote for Satan."

wcvemail
wcvemail

@everlastingphelps @Tim.Covington @Myrna.Minkoff-Katz That fits my growing belief that Repubs out-participate Dems despite the latter's numerical superiority. Got cites for Hispanic voters' non-voting? (I'm not challenging you, just too lazy to look it up myself.)

Voting participation rates don't answer this question, though: how/why do conservative lawmakers from low-population, rural districts wield out-sized clout in the Lege? Factor in that power, and it's another reason that Repubs carry statewide races, I suppose.

everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps topcommenter

@Tim.Covington @everlastingphelps @Myrna.Minkoff-Katz Meh.  The Demographics have been shifting "any day now" ever since Ann Richards lost the election for vetoing concealed carry like a moron.  Nothing has changed.

The only real shift is an increasing number of Hispanic voters, and they frankly just don't vote.  Anyone hanging their hat on shifting demographics will be picking it up off the floor.

Tim.Covington
Tim.Covington

@wcvemail A lot of voters have issues that they are not willing to compromise on. For some it is guns, some abortion, some the environment, and some it is taxes. 

wcvemail
wcvemail

@Tim.Covington @wcvemail Even more backing for my thought that the concerned voters -- concerned about gun rights -- REALLY respond to the bell, and turn out to vote, even though it's a one-note bell. Fervor makes up for numbers in the larger population, obvious.

everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps topcommenter

@Tim.Covington @wcvemail Mayors against Illegal Guns is a Bloomberg front group.  They are for blanket bans and violent confiscation.  (They also have their own history of violence and illegality to boot.)

everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps topcommenter

@wcvemail @Tim.Covington Gun owners vote.  Hispanics don't (50% vs 65%+ for other races).  That's enough to lock the elections for long, long time.

When the Democrats leave guns and abortion off the table, they win statewide and nationwide offices.  When they start jacking with those issues, they lose.  It's that simple.  America doesn't dig what they are selling on those points.

Tim.Covington
Tim.Covington

@wcvemail @Tim.Covington Mayors Against Illegal Guns is not innocuous. If they were just for enforcing existing laws, that would be fine. But, they are actually for more and stricter gun control laws.

everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps topcommenter

@Tim.Covington @wcvemail FYI, I hadn't read this comment when I made the one about Ann Richards above.  It's just so self-evident that we're on the same page.

Gun grabbers won't win state office in Texas.  Not now, likely not in our lifetimes.  By the same token, a pro-abortionist like Davis will not win.  (And by pro-abortion I mean that she's gone way past "choice" into actively campaigning for extreme positions.)

wcvemail
wcvemail

@Tim.Covington @wcvemail I'll trust you on the two elections' gun references, but it's telling that even this reasonably well-read citizen didn't know about either one. "Mayors Against Illegal Guns" sounds innocuous, even widely supportable, but I suppose to the concerned demographic, it's evidence of "they're gonna seize all our guns." And although those particular voters may not have been well-read, they apparently read the ads targeting them.

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