Why (and How) the Rangers Should Go All In as the Trade Deadline Looms

Categories: Sports

1. He's arguably one of the top five starters in baseball.
I'd rank Jered Weaver, David Price, Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw ahead of Hernandez, and that's it. Strong arguments can be made for Matt Cain and Cole Hamels, but it's too close to call.

2. He's signed for two more years.
Although he's hardly a bargain, Hernandez is under contract for $19.5 million next year and $20 million in '14. So even if he goes somewhere else at the end of his current deal, the Rangers will have had Hernandez for three potential postseason runs following their back-to-back AL championships.

3. He's in his prime.
It's hard to believe, but King Felix is just 26 years old, having finished second in the AL Cy Young voting as a 23-year-old before winning it the following season. Texas would have him locked up during his age 27 and 28 seasons, which could be his best yet.

4. He's durable.
Hernandez has been on the disabled list twice, but once was because of a sprained ankle and the other time was because of a strained elbow five years ago that hasn't recurred. He's made at least 30 starts in each of the last six seasons and is on pace to do so again this year.

5. He knows the league and division.
Hernandez has pitched his entire career in the AL West, so he has plenty of experience against the top hitters in the division and league as a whole.

Of course, for this whopper of a deal to become reality, two things must happen, both of which are unlikely, one of which more so than the other.

First, Seattle has to be willing to deal Hernandez. And while it would be a tough message to send to their fans after recently parting ways with franchise icon Ichiro Suzuki, it would help them rebuild to compete in the future. And if Hernandez really loves it in Seattle as much as he has claimed he does, then he can re-sign there after the 2014 season, when the Mariners are closer to contending.

Second, Daniels has to radically change his current philosophy. Right now, he's holding on to the team's young, unproven minor leaguers for dear life, and the idea of trading the top three prospects in the organization (including perhaps the top one in all of baseball), might just give him a heart attack.

So, yeah, the odds aren't good on that one. In fact, I'd say they are about the same as Profar, Olt and Perez all finding their way to Cooperstown.

But if Daniels can dream about that, why can't I dream about what this team would look like with a bona fide ace in its rotation for the next three years?

Daniels is much more likely to add a bullpen arm, a bat or both. The Rangers have been linked to closers Jonathan Broxton and Rafael Betancourt, along with outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, although the latest reports suggest Texas has lost interest in Choo. None of which would have the impact of adding Greinke or Hernandez.

Given what we've seen the last two seasons, Daniels is sure to make a move, but even if it's a smaller one, it's important to remember what I said earlier: It's not time to panic.

After all, last night Texas tied its best 100-game record in franchise history (1999, 2010), which put them four and a half games ahead of Oakland and five ahead of Los Angeles. Scott Feldman suddenly looks like a viable rotation piece. Mitch Moreland should return soon. And the lineup has to start clicking soon. Right? Riiiiight?

Follow Sam on Twitter @SamMerten.

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19 comments
kergo1spaceship
kergo1spaceship like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Judging by tonight, this Roy thing ain't working out fantastic.  Cobra's gone, Nefti may be gone.............Roy is good for a solid five; I think JJ or JBecks is better than nothing? 

 

I give up Perez (loved watching him at Frisco!) to JUST make the playoff's.

 

OMG!  This team may be in third place by 8/15.

 

 

ps-At the beginning of the year I thought Texas might win more than that great Mariners team of yore(116), and Josh might hit .360/70/161.......baseball humbles.  In the words of the great Jim Bouton, "sh+tf+ck! " .

 

 

I watched the greatest team in history not win in championship (1975-78 Sawx)...........good luck ahhh babbabba  ba  ba bitches! (porky the pig)

Beck
Beck

Read the "Why Rangers can't trade Profar, Olt " by Buster Olney on ESPN's site to get a great idea of why Profar and Olt are so valued.

evanrocksthebass
evanrocksthebass

It's too easy to say "prospects are a dime a dozen" when JD literally built this team around trading a star for prospects. (Tex for Andrus, Feliz, Harrison, and some scrub whose name I have erased from my memory). 

 

And you covered half of why trading for Lee is different than trading for Greinke - the lack of a compensation pick. Getting that compensation pick meant you could trade some prospects, try to make a run at a championship, but still get a quality prospect back (minus a couple years experience, generally). So trades like Lee give you immediate help, but don't completely mortgage the future. This is not true anymore, and taking on rentals poses a significant risk of leaving your farm system looking like the White Sox.

 

The other angle is just where the team is in terms of contracts. When we traded for Lee, the payroll was ~60 million. That was a payroll that, with a new owner, we could expand. Now, we have 2 top tier FAs, with several other quality guys that aren't under contract for next year, and several players coming off of rookie contracts and into arbitration. The payroll currently stands between 120 and 130 million, and will expand just based on keeping the guys that we have. Once that TV contract news hit, everyone thought the Rangers would instantly increase payroll to NY/BOS/PHI levels, but that hefty contract isn't in play until after 2014. Be glad that fans are showing up night after night, because it was estimated early in the season that the team would need attendance figures of roughly 2.5 million to _break even_. JD has to be budget-minded, and good for us, he is, because otherwise we'd almost certainly be dealing with one of two situations: a) losing one (or even both, you never know how FA will play out) of Hamilton or Greinke, or b) keeping both, but having to get rid of younger guys as their salaries increase.

 

This team is too damn good to do anything that will jeopardize the ability to keep the team together moving forward. We could go gung ho for a championship this year, but Texas has such a great core of players that they absolutely should be championship contenders for 4-5 years, or even longer if some of Profar, Olt, Perez, Scheppers, and so on can actually live up to the hype.

Mervis
Mervis

 @evanrocksthebassand some scrub whose name I have erased from my memory

 

That wass Saltiamacchia who is finally having a decent year with the BoSox. Traded him for David Murphy.

 

evanrocksthebass
evanrocksthebass

 @Mervis I should have said "purposefully erased from my memory." And we got nothing for him because he couldn't even throw the ball back to the mound when we gave him up.

Mervis
Mervis like.author.displayName 1 Like

Mess with the pitching all you want.......if this thing doesn't start hitting consistantly you can count them out in the first round.

Scruffygeist
Scruffygeist topcommenter like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

If we're counting on Mitch fucking Moreland to come back for the team to hit better, we're in trouble and I've already lost my bet on the Rangers winning the WS in Vegas.

 

I wasn't convinced that Greinke needed to be added here for that price, but nobody asked me. It would've been nice, but I just don't get a good feeling he'd come in here and handle the heat, pressure up to our lofty expectations. He'd probably be good, not great.

 

I'd love to trade for Felix, but I don't think that's happening until Seattle makes a GM change. Which could be soon, but it'd be the straw that broke the camel's back if the existing guy did it. And I'd consider Profar untouchable, even in this case. Any other combination of anyone else in the system they can have. I'd even throw in Murphy or Kinsler, but that's just me.

 

I still love you, Sam.

Beck
Beck like.author.displayName 1 Like

1)  JD and his staff are paid a lot of money to be expert talent evaluators.

2)  They've proven to be very adept at it over the last few years, with far more hits than misses.

3)  You can't just use generalizations like "Prospects are a dime a dozen".  What matters is the specific,  individual players involved in the deal (of which we only hear second hand reports) and their projections for each player.  Only then can you compare the value given and the value received in any proposed deal.  In this case, the Rangers felt it was a bad deal and passed.  Only time will tell if their projections are correct.  Fans are the ones who project every prospect as an All-Star.  JD is paid to do the opposite and shrewdly discern which are the real deal and which can be given up.

4) Doing a bad deal to keep an asset away from a competitor is not a winning strategy.  It weakens your team long term and your chief competition may change over time (see A's this season).

5)  The trading deadline has not passed and almost assuredly, the Rangers will do a deal.  Let's discuss after that point.  

6) JD has shown the ability in the past to trade big time prospects if he feels the value is there.  Let's give him the benefit of the doubt.

Storm_71
Storm_71

I agree with Sam although I would like to get a bat back in the deal (King Felix that is) as well. I don't think Seattle is going to give up King Felix. As far as not getting ole Greinke if Perez (plus a tier 2 or 3 prospect) was all it would have taken and not Olt I don't see why the deal was not done. I'm still holing out some hope that Cliff Lee can be had if the Phillies can chip away alittle of his salary I think it could go down.

Joshjuststruckoutagain
Joshjuststruckoutagain

Brewers wanted a shortstop that was close to being ready, it's been said that the deal for Perez was very close on Thursday and then Melvin got what he actually wanted from the Angels and went that way.

Storm_71
Storm_71

Speak of the devil MLB Rumors via a tweet form Buster Olney says the Cliff Lee is back on the trade table.

ScottsMerkin
ScottsMerkin topcommenter

Sam is about the only person in town who would give up profar, but in that deal for hernandez why not.  Look, we all thought smoak was our future at 1B, we sold him for cliff lee got our WS appearance and Smoak is swimming in AAA right now. 

 

The fact that we are still in 1st while hitting like the bad new bears for 2 months makes me feel good in that if we only get half way back to the way we were hitting in April and May, this team will be fine. 

 

Good to see Sam around here again. 

Joshjuststruckoutagain
Joshjuststruckoutagain

Why not: Profar is going to be our starting short stop year after next..when the big mean Yankees get with Lil E's agent (Boras) and sign him to replace Jeter.

 

Also, both Profar and Olt are higher rated prospects at this time..than Smoak was at that time.

 

Also again: Did you see what Merten did with Nap yesterday?  Sent him back to me after a month.  NOW, lets hope he starts hitting again.

ScottsMerkin
ScottsMerkin topcommenter

 @Joshsbrokendisqus Thats assuming we let Lil E walk.  you cant just avoid the baseball anitchrist until he dies.  You have to deal with him and lil E is worth it. 

 

And Nap is crazy, k's or HR no inbetween

kergo1spaceship
kergo1spaceship

You have to get another "decent" arm in here at whatever REASONABLE costs(s)........Nefti may be done!  And then you get better from within. 

 

ps-Trust me on this one; you don't want Josh Beckett....then again, that trade WOULD make my team better. 

Joshjuststruckoutagain
Joshjuststruckoutagain like.author.displayName 1 Like

Ogs is our other decent arm, made the all star team last year..plenty of rest thus far this year.  Don't want/need Beckett, him and Josh would just sit around eating yard bird and then that damn bat would start flying again.

Joshjuststruckoutagain
Joshjuststruckoutagain like.author.displayName 1 Like

Leggo of my farm system, Mr. Merten.  If we were 10 games up in the division and the offense was ginning (Like it should be and we should be atleast 10 games up) then you lose Colby..OK, trade for Greinke..give them Perez, who will be pitching in our rotation..probably as soon as next year. 

 

But the way this thing is creeping down the tracks, unless Greinke was going to bat third on his non pitching days..keep your powder dry.  We're going to need ammo to replace Josh, Colby, Nap, Torrealba and Feldman?...never mind Feldman.  This thing could flip a switch and everything turn out fine, but that flip has been buried 6 feet under since the first of June. 

 

I'm not completely freaked out yet, still leading the division..nobody is hitting...pitchermen have been dropping like flies....but we need to get after it, and tonight is as good time as any. In closing, Eff the Angels and Ceej!

DittoThat
DittoThat

 @Joshsbrokendisqus Me thinks the Angels gave up too much (3 quality prospects) for three months worth of a headcase pitcher with a 4.05 era over his last 9 (mostly NL) games and a 6.48 postseason (3 games) era.

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